Meteorologists and research scientists at Colorado State University (CSU) released an update to their well-respected hurricane season outlook. Dr. Phil Klotzbach and the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU were among the first to issue an outlook in April.

Their initial prediction had 16 named storms, 8 of which becoming hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes. The updated forecast has upped those numbers to 19 named storms, 9 of which becoming hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes. These numbers include Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal which have already formed this year.

Contributing factors into the 2020 Atlantic Tropical Outlook, courtesy CSU.

“One of the factors we are looking at for this year is that we do not anticipate El Niño conditions going on,” explains Dr. Phil Klotzbach, CSU Research Scientist.

An El Niño would mean warmer-than-normal water in the central and eastern [tropical] Pacific Ocean. That tends to create more wind shear to tear apart hurricanes in the Atlantic. Because El Niño is not expected to limit development, more hurricanes may form.

Another factor this year is warm water in the Atlantic Basin.

“Warmer-than-normal water temperatures [in the Atlantic] are associated with a more unstable atmosphere and also more moisture. The combination provides more fuel for the storms and that in turn tends to lead to more active hurricane seasons,” says Dr. Klotzbach.

There are five previous hurricane seasons that compare to this [anticipated] season, according to the CSU report. Those [analog] years are 1960, 1966, 1980, 1996 and 2008.

“We look at these five analog seasons and four of the five seasons we selected had above-normal hurricane activity, while 1960 had near-normal hurricane activity,” explains Dr. Klotzbach.

This hurricane outlook covers the entire Atlantic basin from a standpoint of below or above average activity. However, it does not guarantee you will [or will not] experience a tropical cyclone.

“Regardless of the hurricane forecast, we can’t say when or where storms are going to strike. So you need to be prepared for any hurricane season because it just takes that one hurricane making landfall near where you live to make it an active season for you,” advises Dr. Klotzbach.

It is never too late to get your hurricane plan and kits ready. NOAA released their hurricane season outlook at the end of May. Not surprisingly, they also expect an above average season.

BREAKING: NOAA Expects Above Average Hurricane Season