1. Soybeans Fall Overnight as Investors Liquidate Some Long Positions

Soybeans fell overnight as investors, who were long the market or had bet on rising prices, sold their contracts and liquidated positions after prices jumped. Soybean futures before today rose 10% in the past month to an eight-month high.

Those seeking to book profits likely sold some of their positions overnight. Speculative investors in the week through April 12 were net long more than 94,000 contracts, the most since June 2014, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Grains rose slightly as corn gained after Brazil reportedly scrapped a 10% import tax, leaving the door open to imports amid dry weather in the country that’s threatening its crop. Wheat also rose on speculation the value of the dollar – down almost 5% since the start of the year – will boost demand for U.S. inventories.

Soybean futures for July delivery fell 1¾¢ to $9.92¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal futures lost 30¢ to $307.60 per short ton, while soy oil declined 0.08¢ to 34.70¢ a pound.

Corn futures for May delivery rose 1¾¢ to $3.91¼ a bushel.

Wheat futures for May delivery added 3¼¢ to $4.97½ a bushel overnight in Chicago. Kansas City wheat rose 2½¢ to $4.90¼ a bushel.

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2. Argentina’s Excessive Rain Hurting Soybeans Latest in Bullish Event

Investors, analysts, and growers have been talking a lot lately about Argentina, where rain is disrupting the harvest and pushing up soybean prices.

Excessive rainfall has reportedly cut domestic shipments to crushers by half. Not only that, but some worry that the nonstop precipitation will hurt the quality of the crop. Losses are being forecast from 1 million hectares (2.5 million acres) to as much as 10 million hectares.

And the rains aren’t finished just yet.

Donald Keeney, a senior agricultural meteorologist at MDA Information Services, said additional rains in northeastern parts of Argentina will continue to slow the harvest.

The good news for farmers in the South American country is that dry weather is expected in some parts of east-central Argentina in the next six to 10 days, Keeney said.

A confluence of events has helped push soybean prices higher recently. It started with news that palm oil was rising amid unfavorable weather in Southeast Asia, which, in turn, pushed up soybean oil prices. Department of Agriculture reports then showed that U.S. farmers would likely decrease planting this year by 1%, and stockpiles at the end of the marketing year would come in lower than previously expected.

That’s pushed soybean prices up 10% and caused speculative investors to jump on the bandwagon, pushing net-long positions to the highest in 22 months.

Now the question is, can soybean prices punch through the $10 barrier, or will the allure of a 10% profit in the past month be too much for money managers to pass up?

Discuss soybean weather in Argentina in Marketing Talk.

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3. More Rain Expected in Southern Plains as Weather May Turn Severe

More rain is possible in the Southern Plains on Wednesday, though storms could cause damage to homes and crops, according to the National Weather Service.

“Thunderstorms are possible across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles this afternoon through tonight,” the NWS said in a report this morning. “Some storms could be severe.”

Egg-sized hail and wind gusts of up to 70 mph are the main risks, while locally heavy rains may result in flooding, the agency said. As much as 10 inches of rain fell on Sunday and Monday in parts of the Southern Plains after the region hadn’t received noticeable precipitation in almost four months.

Flooding is still occurring in east Texas after a record amount of rain fell in Houston on Monday. With only 20 days passed, this already has been the wettest April on record in Houston, according to the National Weather Service.

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