There are a couple of tropical waves that bear watching in the Gulf of Mexico. One tropical wave has already hit Florida with plenty of rain and now it’s on the move to the west-northwest, where it will bring heavy downpours to coastal Texas and Louisiana from Sunday night to Monday night.

The first tropical wave will impact Texas and Louisiana Sunday into Monday with heavy showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Then the next wave, to the east, will impact Florida Monday and Tuesday with heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms.

The tropical wave that will impact Florida early this week will be the one to watch as it enters the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.

There will be plenty of moisture associated with the tropical wave as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico this week. Meanwhile the surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico is warmer than average, for the most part. A little sliver of the western Gulf, near eastern Mexico, is cooler than average. Otherwise, the Gulf waters range from 86 to 90 degrees Fahrenheit.

As abundant moisture moves over the warm Gulf, rain and thunderstorms are expected to be widespread, noted by the green in the GFS model run.

The moisture will reach the southeast Texas coastline and parts of the coast of Louisiana Thursday night and Friday. This will likely result in pockets of heavy rain and thunderstorms.

Tropical development in July is possible in the Gulf of Mexico.

Meanwhile, these tropical waves near the United States are finding a window of opportunity. There is currently a break in dust from the Saharan Desert in Africa. When the dust is present, it helps to prevent tropical systems. When the dust is not present, it opens up opportunities for possible development.

It has already been a very active start to the Atlantic hurricane season, in terms of named storms. This is a gentle reminder that the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner. The most active part of the tropical season is from late August to early October. Be sure your family and your property are ready for the hurricane season!