A front that arrived earlier this week from Canada is bringing a continued chance for strong thunderstorms across the Northeast this week.  Here’s a breakdown for the days ahead.

WEDNESDAY

On Wednesday, there is a slight risk for severe storms (level 2 on a scale of 1 to 5) near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, including Buffalo and Erie. A marginal risk covers most western New York and Pennsylvania, including Pittsburg. Large hail is possible, but the primary threat will be from winds over 58 mph.

With substantial moisture in the atmosphere streaming northward, humidity levels will climb and feed thunderstorm development. As temperatures climb, instability will build near a warm front. This will help to produce severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening.

A warm front will be the primary focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms. As the front lifts northward across the Great Lakes, increasing instability and modest jet stream energy will likely produce a few severe storms in the afternoon and evening.

THURSDAY

For Thursday, the risk area shifts eastward. The warm front will intensify, along with stronger jet stream energy and lake/sea-breeze boundaries. This will likely lead to wider coverage of severe storms. There is an enhanced risk (level 3 on a scale of 1 to 5) from the Genesee Valley in New York to Long Island. Most of the rest of the region is under a slight risk (level 2).

All modes of severe weather are possible with strong wind gusts being the main concern. A few tornadoes are also possible, along with large hail.

FRIDAY

As the front stalls over the region Friday, the potential for severe thunderstorms continues. The risk area extends from the Middle Atlantic westward into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

WeatherNation will be tracking the severe risk for this week with VIPIR Radar updates.  Keep checking back for more information on-air and online.