As we track the forecast of a Pacific system moving into the Central United States (see here for details) through today and Wednesday, an additional low pressure system dives off of this system and brings the chance for precipitation across Texas and Oklahoma. By tonight/tomorrow, the upper level low that is energizing storms moves over New Mexico/Texas.

The freezing line will play a big factor in the precipitation type for west Texas. As cold air pools in behind the front and available moisture being pumped in from the Gulf and the Pacific jet precipitation may change to snow as we head into the early morning hours of Wednesday. By Wednesday evening, the freezing lines moves farther east into Texas and even into northeastern Oklahoma. This means the chance for wintry weather will increase.

Forecast

The forecast model we’re using here is our in-house Baron Model. As a surface low moves in Wednesday, Gulf moisture and the addition of some Pacific moisture in the upper levels of the atmosphere will help bring in precipitation. Behind this frontal boundary, a mass of cold air will run into a clashing warm air mass and this contrast along the frontal boundary is what helps elevate storms (see here for severe potential). Behind the front, some precipitation has the likelihood of transitioning to a wintry mix with some ice accumulations possible.

NOTE: there is still some uncertainty on the exact track of this storm and precipitation type is still uncertain.
Early Wednesday morning, some spotty snow moves into Amarillo and Lubbock, Texas.

As northerly winds move in, the rain and snow line is expected to shift and fill into west-central and central Oklahoma. We are likely to see some light snowfall accumulation throughout the day Wednesday. Many will keep with a wintry mix as afternoon temperatures warm just slightly above freezing in Oklahoma. Meanwhile, southwestern Texas, likely east of El Paso, starts to accumulate snow.

Late Wednesday overnight into Thursday, temperatures will drop once again in the overnight hours. Especially across west Texas. Lubbock Texas through Odessa are likely to see some snow. Meanwhile, in Oklahoma a few lingering snow flurries likely around Tulsa but most should see heavy rain.

By early Thursday morning, with all the moisture wrapping around the low pressure system from the Gulf we continue to fuel heavy rain through Central Texas and eastern Oklahoma through Arkansas and along the stalled out front some may see some excessive and heavy rain. On the back side, ice and snow for west Texas. Central Oklahoma may seen some wintry mix or even some freezing rain along and west of the I-35/I-44 corridor.

29By New Year’s Eve as temperatures start to drop when we lose daytime heating the chance for more wintry mix and ice accretion moves into Oklahoma and Missouri as surface temperatures begin to drop. The Texas panhandle continues to see snow.

Winter Alerts

Winter Storm Watches in blue have been issued for Texas and Oklahoma. Southwestern Texas is likely to see between 2-10″ of snow. There is still a wide range in snowfall totals within this area. Northwestern Oklahoma is also under winter storm watches for 3-5″ of snow and some light ice accumulations. Watches last through Thursday. Winter Weather Advisories in purple have been issued just east of El Paso, Texas for 1-4″ of snow and winds near the mountains up to 35 mph.

Where the freezing line moves in will determine what type of precipitation we will get.

Precipitation Forecast

Snow Estimates

Our best confidence on accumulative snow will be into southwestern Texas where we could see between 2-10″ of snow.

Ice Estimates

There will also be an icing element with this system as some mixed precipitation may accumulate on colder surfaces as ice. The heaviest of ice looks to move into northern Arkansas as this surface low tracks northeast but is also fueled by Gulf moisture.

Temperatures Behind The Front

As this frontal boundary moves in, temperatures will be dropping. Wednesday morning lows in west Texas will still be around that freezing mark which will determine how high or snowfall totals get.

But notice how much colder temperatures get by Thursday after the frontal boundary has cleared the area. This could mean more of a wintry mix from southwest Texas through the I-35 corridor and north of the Red River.

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