1. Soybean Futures Jump in Overnight Trading

Soybean futures surged in overnight trading after the long weekend in the U.S. amid expectations for lower planting and somewhat unfavorable weather in parts of the northern Plains.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said last week it expects producers to plant 87.6 million acres with soybeans this year, well below expectations from analysts for 90 million acres.  

If realized, that would still be the highest planted area in three years, the USDA said.

Corn acres are pegged at 91.1 million this year, the government said in its report last week. That missed expectations for 93.2 million acres but would be the highest since 2016.

Dry weather in parts of the Plains and Midwest also are giving prices a boost. Extremely dry weather is expected in parts of South Dakota today and tomorrow, according to the National Weather Service.

In eastern Iowa and northern Illinois, meanwhile, strong winds, low humidity, and warm weather will lead to a “very high risk for grass fires” today, the NWS said.

Scattered rainfall is possible in the area, but with strong winds the precipitation may never reach the ground, the agency said in a report.

Soybean futures for May delivery jumped 13¢ to $14.14 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal gained $4.40 to $414.60 a short ton, and soy oil gained 0.73¢ to 52.86¢ a pound.

Corn futures for May delivery gained ½¢ to $5.60¼ a bushel.

Wheat futures for May delivery added 4¢ to $6.15 a bushel overnight, while Kansas City futures rose 1 1/4¢ to $5.66½ a bushel.

2. Speculative Investors Increase Net-Long Positions in Corn

Money managers raised their net-long positions, or bets on higher prices, in corn while reducing their bullish soybean positions, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Investors bumped their net-longs in corn to 387,698 futures contracts as of March 30, the CFTC said in a report. That’s up from 379,509 futures contracts a week earlier.

Speculators, however, reduced their bullish positions in soybeans to 133,775 futures contracts last week, down from 151,572 contracts seven days earlier, the agency said.

Demand for U.S. corn has been strong in recent weeks while overseas sales of soybeans have been relatively weak, government data show.

Hedge funds and other large money managers turned bearish on soft-red winter wheat, moving to a net-short position, or bets on lower prices.

Investors held a net-short of 19,105 soft-red winter futures contracts as of March 30, a shift from a net-long position of 2,718 contracts the previous week, the CFTC said.

Speculators lowered their bullish bets in hard-red winter wheat to a net-21,185 futures contracts last week. That’s down from 26,071 contracts the previous week, the agency said in its report.

The weekly Commitments of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows trader positions in futures markets.

The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.

A net-long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net-short position means more are betting futures will decline.

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3. Dry Weather Leads to Warnings, Watches in Northern and Southern Plains

Red-flag warnings have been issued in parts of western South Dakota amid strong winds and low humidity, according to the National Weather Service.

Winds are expected to be sustained from 20 to 30 mph with gusts of up to 45 mph, the NWS said in a report early this morning.

Relative humidity will drop as low as 15%.

“The combination of very dry fuels, strong north winds, and low relative humidity will result in critical fire weather conditions,” the agency said.

In the southern Plains, meanwhile, a fire-weather watch is in effect due to dry conditions.

West winds will be sustained up to 30 mph with gusts of up to 45 mph, the NWS said. Relative humidity in parts of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles will fall as low as 8% this afternoon, the agency said.

Winds will increase in the Oklahoma panhandle tomorrow to 35 mph with gusts of up to 55 mph. Humidity will drop as low as 7%, the NWS said.