As the indirect talks between the United States and Iran are making some progress but not major breakthroughs, diplomatic shuttles of U.S. officials and senators in the Middle East in recent days have intensified reports that there could be a breakthrough soon.

A deal is in the works that will only collapse if Iran decides not to play ball, officials from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and from the U.S. say, The Dispatch reports.

The talks in Vienna resumed this week, while U.S. and Iranian officials are shuttling around the Middle East, The Hill reports, noting that this could signal a breakthrough in the negotiations for the U.S. and Iran to return to the so-called nuclear deal, or as it is officially known, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Currently, the U.S. sanctions imposed by the Trump Administration are preventing Iran from exporting all of its oil, as many buyers around the world don’t want to risk their U.S. assets by doing business with Iran. Despite the sanctions, Iran has been exporting part of its crude oil, and exports have been estimated at around 500,000 bpd recently. 

U.S. President Joe Biden has signaled a willingness to return to the nuclear deal, but only if Iran returns to full compliance in its nuclear activities.

During the weekend, Iranian diplomats said there was progress made in the ongoing talks in Vienna.

Iran will be able to raise its crude oil exports to 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) after the U.S. sanctions on its oil industry are lifted, a top Iranian official said this weekend. 

But U.S. diplomats say, at least publicly, that there is no imminent breakthrough they can talk about.

The U.S. State Department said on Wednesday, “we welcome a mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA,” as the talks in Vienna resumed.

“Compliance for compliance. What we don’t yet know is whether Iran is prepared to make the same decision and move forward,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken told BBC’s Radio 4 Today program on Thursday, quoted by The National.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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