Severe Outlook

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast for scattered severe storms by Wednesday.

The tornado threat is elevated which means quick spin ups are going to develop throughout the line of storms. There could even be waterspouts over Lake Erie that try to move onshore.

As for the wind, it will also be one of the strongest components of the severe threat. Gusts over 60 mph are likely and the wind will pick up even ahead of the storms.

The hail threat is much lower but with the colder air aloft, there could be dime to penny sized hail. These are technically sub-severe limits but could still develop in any of the stronger storms.

Set-Up for Storms

A trough of low pressure brings back a cold front through these areas. The instability increases thus the stronger storm chances along and head of the frontal boundary.

Forecast and Timing

As we head into the afternoon, the wind picks up and brings in gusty conditions before the storms start igniting.

By the noon timeframe, the isolated stronger storms ahead of the cold front develop. The deeper colors on the model are an indication of the intensity being higher and strong storms likely.

The afternoon and early evening hours are when storms could be the strongest. Hail, tornadoes and damaging wind are the main threats.

The wind is still going to be strong on the back side of the cold front into the evening hours. Notice the forecast model suggesting gusts upwards of 40-50 mph at times. Especially, in some of the higher elevations of the Green and White Mountains. But overnight into Thursday, the wind will weaken and subside.

By the time we approach sunset in the east, the strongest of the thunderstorms will be moving off shore. There could still be a few lingering storms but ultimately the severe threat will continue to drop off throughout the overnight hours.

Accumulations

Rainfall totals look to be mainly around the 1″ mark but some localized areas could see 2″-3″ with several rounds of heavy downpours passing.

Once the storms pass, most of the region sees improving conditions but Chicago keeps the chance for storms even into Thursday. NYC will see clear skies and a drop in the humidity behind this cold front by the end of the week.